Trade Analysis and Advice for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3294 level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

Ahead are data on U.S. nonfarm payroll changes, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. These indicators traditionally attract close attention from investors and analysts as they serve as key barometers of the U.S. economy's health and the potential direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Nonfarm payrolls reflect the total number of jobs created or lost in the economy excluding the agricultural sector. Growth in this figure indicates economic expansion, increased consumer spending, and potentially rising inflationary pressure. However, many economists expect a decline, which could suggest a slowdown in economic growth and a need for stimulus measures.

The unemployment rate, showing the percentage of the labor force without work and actively seeking it, is another important indicator. Given that the figure remains at historically low levels, its stability may calm markets after a sharp rise in volatility.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3326 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3384 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3384, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). A pound rally today is possible only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3281 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3326 and 1.3384 is expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below 1.3281 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3221, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Sellers will become active in case of strong U.S. statistics. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3326 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3281 and 1.3221 is expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the estimated price to set Take Profit or manually secure profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the estimated price to set Take Profit or manually secure profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to monitor overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I have provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is, by nature, a losing strategy for intraday traders.