empty
03.03.2025 10:35 AM
BTC/USD Analysis – March 3rd

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for BTC/USD appears clear and well-defined. Following a prolonged and complex corrective pattern (a-b-c-d-e) from March 14 to August 5, a new impulse wave began to form, adopting a five-wave structure. Given the size of the first wave, the fifth wave might have been truncated, which is why I did not and do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Additionally, wave 4 took on a three-wave structure, confirming the accuracy of the current wave count. Bitcoin's growth was previously fueled by consistent news of institutional investments, including government allocations and pension fund purchases. However, Trump's policies forced investors to exit the market, and no trend can remain permanently bullish. The wave that began on January 20 does not resemble a typical first impulse wave, indicating that we are dealing with a complex corrective structure that could persist for months.

BTC/USD surged $8,000 in a single day, and it is not difficult to identify the reason behind this sharp rally. Donald Trump announced the creation of a U.S. crypto reserve, which would include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. However, the market was not particularly concerned with which additional cryptocurrencies would be included in a reserve that may or may not be established someday. Instead, the entire market rallied on the news. Trump further declared his intention to make America the "global capital of cryptocurrency," igniting a new wave of optimism among traders and investors.

However, the current wave structure still indicates the formation of a bearish corrective phase. This correction is likely to be complex, meaning that the decline to $77,000 was not the final drop. As I have previously mentioned, Trump, as a businessman, is unlikely to buy Bitcoin at $90,000–$100,000. The crypto market is susceptible to manipulation, and pushing Bitcoin down by tens of thousands of dollars is not an impossible task.

Thus, a further decline is inevitable due to wave structure constraints, and Trump may also attempt to significantly lower Bitcoin's price to facilitate the creation of the U.S. reserve. My expectations remain unchanged.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on the BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that Bitcoin's current rally is over. A complex correction appears inevitable. For this reason, I have not recommended buying Bitcoin before, and I certainly do not recommend it now. A drop below the low of wave 4 would confirm that Bitcoin is entering a bearish trend phase, likely a corrective one. Given this, the best strategy is to look for short-selling opportunities on lower timeframes. Bitcoin could decline to $76,000 (161.8% Fibonacci) and potentially to $68,000 (200.0% Fibonacci) within the coming weeks.

On the higher wave scale, a five-wave bullish structure is clearly visible. However, the market has now begun forming a bearish correction, which could either be a corrective phase or the start of a full-fledged downtrend.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex formations are difficult to trade and often require adjustments.
  2. If you are uncertain about the market direction, it's better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market movement. Always use Stop-Loss orders to protect your capital.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
انسٹافاریکس کا تجزیاتی ماہر
© 2007-2025
ٹائم فریم منتخب کریں
5
منٹ
15
منٹ
30
منٹ
1
گھنٹہ
4
گھنٹے
1
دن
1
ہفتہ
انسٹافاریکس کے ساتھ کرپٹو کرنسی کی معاملاتی تبدیلیوں سے کمائیں۔
میٹا ٹریڈر 4 ڈاؤن لوڈ کریں اور اپنی پہلی ٹریڈ کھولیں۔
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    مقابلہ میں شامل ہوں

تجویز کردہ مضامین

مئی 29 (شمالی امریکی سیشن) کے لیے کرپٹو مارکیٹ پر تجارتی تجاویز

بٹ کوائن نے کافی مضبوط واپسی کی ہے، $108,000 کے نشان سے اوپر چڑھ کر $109,000 کو توڑ دیا۔ نیچے دیا گیا چارٹ $108,100 کی سطح کے ذریعے

Miroslaw Bawulski 20:05 2025-05-29 UTC+2

بٹ کوائن نے $109,000 تک بہتری کی ہے

بٹ کوائن آج تیزی سے $109,000 کی سطح پر پہنچ گیا۔ یہ تیز رفتار اضافہ، خاص طور پر کل کے 106,600 ڈالر تک گرنے کے بعد،

Jakub Novak 19:29 2025-05-29 UTC+2

بٹ کوائن اور ایتھریم تیزی کی رفتار کو برقرار رکھتے ہیں۔

ایک مختصر وقفے کے باوجود، بٹ کوائن اور ایتھریم اپنی اوپر کی حرکت کے ساتھ ختم ہوتے دکھائی نہیں دیتے۔ جبکہ آج کے ایشیائی تجارتی سیشن کے دوران بٹ کوائن

Jakub Novak 17:03 2025-05-27 UTC+2

یہ کہ 27 مئی کو کرپٹو کرنسی مارکیٹ کے لیے تجارتی تجاویز

بٹ کوائن اور ایتھر کی مانگ اس ہفتے کے اوائل میں جاری ہے۔ بٹ کوائن $109,000 کے نشان سے اوپر رہتا ہے، جبکہ ایتھریم $2,600 سے اوپر کو مستحکم کرنے

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:22 2025-05-27 UTC+2

مئی 27 2025 کو بی ٹی سی تجزیہ

بی ٹی سی / یو ایس ڈی کی قدر میں گزشتہ سات ہفتوں کے دوران نمایاں اضافہ ہوا ہے، مانگ میں مسلسل اور مسلسل اضافہ ہو رہا ہے۔

Chin Zhao 16:12 2025-05-27 UTC+2

مئی 26 کو کرپٹو کرنسی مارکیٹ کے لیے تجارتی سفارشات

بٹ کوائن اور ایتھریم کی مانگ اس ہفتے کے آغاز میں واپس آگئی۔ بٹ کوائن $109,000 کی سطح سے اوپر ٹوٹ چکا ہے، جبکہ ایتھریم $2,550 کے نشان سے اوپر

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:35 2025-05-26 UTC+2
ابھی فوری بات نہیں کرسکتے ؟
اپنا سوال پوچھیں بذریعہ چیٹ.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.