empty
06.05.2025 12:50 AM
The Dollar Sell-Off Shows No Signs of Slowing Down

The latest CFTC report reveals that the dollar sell-off continues unabated. Weekly changes against major currencies amounted to -$3.1 billion, bringing the total accumulated short position to -$17.1 billion.

This image is no longer relevant

One of the reasons the dollar has struggled to regain momentum is China's refusal to yield to pressure from Donald Trump. The U.S. and China remain at odds over whether trade negotiations have begun. Trump claimed several times last week that discussions with China had taken place, which Beijing denied. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — who appears to be leading the trade talks — stated that he was unaware of any conversation between Trump and Xi. Meanwhile, shelves in major U.S. retail chains are being emptied, and price increases are looming unless tariffs are reduced soon. Container shipping data shows that trade between the two countries has nearly stopped, as importers have stopped placing orders. American farmers also see a significant decline in exports to their largest foreign market.

China's defiance appears to have placed it in a stronger position than Trump had anticipated. Negotiations may be underway behind the scenes, but they are kept quiet until a tangible — even if temporary — result is achieved to ease tensions. With no visible progress, the dollar remains under mounting pressure as time works against the U.S. On Monday, the dollar weakened again as speculation grew that several Asian countries may consider revaluing their currencies to pressure the U.S. into making concessions.

The swap market has not revised its outlook for the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory, and it is still pricing in three cuts this year. Nothing in the recent data has been enough to shift that view, as the latest GDP and labor market reports painted a blurred and contradictory picture. First-quarter GDP showed an annualized decline of -0.3%, mainly due to a surge in imports in anticipation of new tariffs. Domestic demand remains stable and is not yet a cause for concern. Preliminary labor data indicated declines (ADP, job vacancies, and job indices) and weaker consumer activity. However, Friday's official report surprised with stronger-than-expected job growth.

The upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday carries a low probability of a rate cut. All attention will be on Jerome Powell's press conference, where he will face intense pressure. Trump has repeatedly said he expects a rate cut from the Fed and has hinted at the possible dismissal of Powell — though he recently walked that back to reassure markets. The mere threat of pressure on the Fed has pushed bond yields lower. As a result, Powell may issue a direct signal that a rate cut is possible in June. If markets pick up on such a hint, it could trigger a renewed wave of dollar sell-offs.

The S&P 500 stock index rose last week, but the rally was largely psychological — driven by expectations that Trump's tariff policy might eventually pay off. Additionally, the earlier drop starting in February was so sharp that a correction was inevitable. The index had lost 50% of its gains over the prior 28 months.

This image is no longer relevant

Still, in the long term, we expect that once the current correction ends, the index will resume its decline. A U.S. recession now appears almost inevitable. Our long-term target is 5130. A move to this level could unfold quickly or gradually, depending on the political landscape and how soon the U.S. economy's weakening fundamentals become undeniable. Global trade is now a black box—anything could come from it.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 7 de julio. El mercado vuelve a posponer sus expectativas sobre el recorte de tasas de la Fed.

El par de divisas GBP/USD también se mantuvo en el mismo lugar durante el viernes, ya que en ese día la sesión comercial estadounidense, en esencia, no funcionaba. No hubo

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de julio. Elon Musk crea el «Partido Americano»

El par de divisas EUR/USD estuvo inmovilizado prácticamente todo el día viernes. Esto se explica fácilmente, ya que el viernes se celebró el Día de la Independencia

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 3 de julio. Jerome Powell finalmente respondió a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el miércoles se desplomó como una piedra. Sin embargo, cualquier caída del par siempre termina en un crecimiento mucho más fuerte. Por lo tanto

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 3 de julio. Una gran ley de Trump aprobada, el dólar en mínimos de 4 años.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el miércoles se negoció de manera bastante tranquila, si es que se puede aplicar la palabra "tranquila" a la caída diaria del dólar

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 2.

El par de divisas GBP/USD bajó moderadamente durante el lunes, lo cual no representa ningún problema para la moneda británica. La libra esterlina puede permitirse tranquilamente perder 100 o incluso

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 1.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó negociándose el lunes dentro de un rango extremadamente estrecho. El lunes hubo pocas noticias, y las que se publicaron no despertaron mayor interés entre

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

El Bitcoin convierte a sus competidores en polvo

Expectativas y realidad. Los creadores de criptomonedas las concebían como un universo donde cualquier token podía competir por el dinero de los inversores. En la práctica, aparte del Bitcoin

Marek Petkovich 12:43 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de junio. Nóminas no agrícolas, Powell y desempleo.

El par GBP/USD subió 300 puntos durante la semana pasada y, al parecer, no tiene intención de detenerse. Incluso el viernes, el precio no logró iniciar una corrección bajista

Paolo Greco 07:48 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de junio. Inflación europea y nueva ronda de discursos de Lagarde.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continúa su movimiento ascendente durante cinco meses consecutivos. En este período, solo hemos visto algunas correcciones bajistas débiles, que cada vez terminaban con otra caída

Paolo Greco 07:48 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 27 de junio. La historia no se repite.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su fuerte movimiento alcista durante el jueves. Desde el inicio de la semana, el dólar estadounidense ha perdido "solo" 330 puntos. Ya hemos mencionado

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-06-27 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.