empty
24.04.2025 03:16 AM
EUR/USD Overview – April 24: Is it really about Powell?

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair refrained from continuing its decline on Wednesday. As the saying goes, "Everything in moderation." The dollar gained around 200 pips on Tuesday, which shouldn't scare anyone. Such volatility has become normal for EUR/USD in recent weeks. Thus, we saw not a "2-cent gain over a short period" but "200 pips up after an 1100-pip fall of the U.S. currency." Do those 200 pips look impressive now? What the dollar showed on Tuesday was merely a minor correction.

Let's try to understand the possible reasons. Markets practically exploded when Donald Trump announced that he had no intention of firing Jerome Powell. Now, let's imagine that Trump suddenly said he planned to stop the Earth or put out the Sun. How would the markets react? Probably with indifference because it's simply impossible. The same applies to firing Powell. Trump has no leverage over the Federal Reserve because the Fed is apolitical, and U.S. legislation is designed to prevent anyone from influencing the central bank.

Of course, there are always outlandish scenarios—like accusing Powell of incompetence, insider trading, or even something absurd like murder. But we all understand that no court would find Powell guilty. Therefore, Trump's efforts to remove Powell were pure populism. And the market surely understood that. So, in essence, there shouldn't have been any market reaction—neither to the suggestion of firing Powell nor to the "pardon." Simply because neither is realistically possible.

We can assume that the dollar fell on the same basis of global uncertainty on Monday, and on Tuesday, it corrected for technical reasons. Yes, even during strong upward trends, technical corrections are possible. As we can see, on Wednesday, there was no further decline (i.e., no continued dollar rise). Donald Trump continues to influence the forex market significantly, but it's now hard to say precisely what the market is reacting to. In theory, it could react to almost anything. What if Trump says tomorrow that he plans to bomb China? Would anyone believe it? Would the dollar crash again?

We've often said that Trump's words should be taken with a grain of salt—or better yet, a boulder. His first term should've taught the world that "a promise isn't a guarantee." However, a better saying in Trump's case would be: "The president said something... then changed his mind." So we wouldn't be surprised if, in a few weeks, Trump cancels most of the tariffs, including those on China.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 24 is 111 pips, which is considered "high." We expect the pair to move between levels 1.1258 and 1.1480 on Thursday. The long-term regression channel is pointing upward, indicating a short-term uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory three times, signaling the start of a new corrective phase.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0742

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1475

R2 – 1.1719

R3 – 1.1963

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair maintains an upward trend. For months, we've consistently said we expect a medium-term decline in the euro—and that view hasn't changed. The dollar still has no fundamental reason to fall except for Donald Trump. Yet this one factor alone continues to drag the dollar into the abyss. Moreover, it's now entirely unclear what economic consequences this will lead to. When Trump finally stops escalating the trade war, the U.S. economy might already be in poor condition, making a dollar rebound unlikely. If you're trading based on "pure" technicals or "on Trump," then long positions are still viable as long as the price remains above the moving average, with a target at 1.1719.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

DXY: O dólar mantém a esperança de uma recuperação

Hoje, o Índice Dólar dos EUA (DXY), que mede o desempenho do dólar em relação a uma cesta de moedas principais, encontra-se em uma fase de consolidação altista após atingir

Irina Yanina 14:27 2025-05-09 UTC+2

O Banco da Inglaterra está pronto para reduzir as taxas

Espera-se que o Banco da Inglaterra corte as taxas de juros em 0,25 ponto percentual hoje e sinalize que uma nova redução é provável em junho. Isso pode colocar

Jakub Novak 17:18 2025-05-08 UTC+2

O mercado se recuperará por conta própria.

O Fed já não é mais o centro do universo financeiro, e a valorização de 13% do S&P 500 em relação às mínimas de abril encareceu ainda mais as ações

Marek Petkovich 15:57 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Por que o ouro caiu drasticamente após a reunião do Fed?

O ouro teve um leve aumento após a reunião do Federal Reserve, na qual as taxas de juros foram mantidas inalteradas e o presidente do Fed, Jerome Powell, declarou

Jakub Novak 15:45 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Resultados da reunião do FOMC

O euro e a libra esterlina retomaram a trajetória de queda frente ao dólar norte-americano após a divulgação dos resultados da reunião do Federal Reserve; no entanto, o recuo

Jakub Novak 15:27 2025-05-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Análise e previsão

Nesta quinta-feira, o par EUR/USD está caindo abaixo do nível psicológico de 1.1300. A eleição de Friedrich Merz como chanceler da Alemanha reduz a incerteza em torno da força econômica

Irina Yanina 14:14 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 7 de maio? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Pouquíssimos eventos macroeconômicos estão programados para quarta-feira e, de qualquer forma, é improvável que eles tenham um impacto significativo sobre qualquer um dos pares de moedas. O euro permanece

Paolo Greco 21:32 2025-05-07 UTC+2

O Fed manterá as taxas apesar da pressão

O euro e a libra esterlina permanecem dentro de uma faixa de consolidação antes de uma importante reunião da Reserva Federal dos Estados Unidos. Espera-se que as autoridades mantenham

Jakub Novak 21:26 2025-05-07 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o iene japonês atingiu uma nova mínima diária, o que contribuiu para a valorização do par USD/JPY, que se aproximou do nível de 143,50. Esse movimento de alta

Irina Yanina 21:07 2025-05-07 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Análise e previsão

O par NZD/USD recua após atingir uma máxima de mais de duas semanas na região de 0,6025–0,6030. No momento, as cotações caíram abaixo do nível psicológico de 0,6000, sinalizando

Irina Yanina 21:00 2025-05-07 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.