empty
19.08.2024 02:02 PM
The pound gains strength

A strong economy leads to a strong currency. This is a principle of fundamental analysis that remains unchanged. We all remember how the USD index surged from January to April, fueled by the revival of the American exceptionalism narrative. Investors expecting a slowdown in U.S. GDP were met with the opposite outcome, which set the U.S. apart from other countries and allowed the dollar to strengthen. Now, the UK has assumed a similar position to that of the U.S. earlier in the year. It should come as no surprise that GBP/USD is experiencing a rapid rally.

Following mixed reports on the labor market and inflation in the UK, positive data has started to emerge. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by an impressive 0.6% in the second quarter, and retail sales jumped by 0.5% in July, with revisions showing an upward adjustment. This bolsters the belief that the economy will continue its steady progress in the third quarter. In the first half of the year, it outpaced the U.S. and confidently leads the G7.

G7 Economies' Performance

This image is no longer relevant

Strong macroeconomic data allows the Bank of England to proceed cautiously before continuing its monetary easing cycle, which began on August 1 with a reduction in the repo rate from 5.25% to 5%. Derivatives estimate the chances of a second BoE move in September at 37%. By the end of the year, borrowing costs are expected to decrease by 43 basis points, which is significantly less than the 93 basis points expected for the Federal Reserve. The different speeds of monetary policy easing provide favorable conditions for GBP/USD.

Political stability and growing global risk appetite also play into the pound's favor. Not long ago, investors had doubts about whether Keir Starmer's government could fulfill its promise to lead the UK economy to the top of the G7. The budget deficit seemed enormous, and the proposed tax hikes exerted downward pressure on the pound. However, recent macroeconomic data suggests that the Labour Party didn't have to exert much effort: when major competitors, led by the U.S., slow down, the UK gets a chance. So far, it's seizing that opportunity successfully.

I doubt that GBP/USD could have reached the 1.3 level without the rapid rally in U.S. stock indices. Both the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones index saw their best weekly performance since November, as the market transitioned from fear to greed. While the specter of recession haunted investors in early August, by mid-month, it had been largely forgotten. Global risk appetite is growing, and the U.S. dollar is being sold off as a safe-haven asset.

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD rally is also supported by expectations of signals pointing to the imminent start of the Fed's monetary easing, which are expected to be included in the minutes of the July FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.

Technically, on the daily chart, GBP/USD has managed to consolidate above its moving averages, trend line, and fair value level. This is a clear bullish signal and a reason to increase long positions formed from the 1.28 level. The target levels are 1.3015 and 1.3140.

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

USD/JPY. Analisis dan Ramalan

Semasa sesi Eropah pada hari Khamis, yen Jepun kekal stabil, membolehkan pasangan USD/JPY untuk bertahan di atas paras penting 143.00 di tengah-tengah kenaikan sederhana dolar AS. Para pelabur yakin bahawa

Irina Yanina 12:04 2025-06-05 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analisis dan Ramalan

Hari ini pasangan AUD/JPY menarik pembeli baru. Data terbaru dari China, termasuk kajian swasta Caixin, menunjukkan peningkatan pertumbuhan sederhana dalam sektor perkhidmatan China pada bulan Mei: PMI meningkat dari 50.7

Irina Yanina 11:36 2025-06-05 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pasangan USD/CAD terus mengalami penurunan. Faktor-faktor fundamental menyokong sentimen menurun, menunjukkan bahawa laluan paling sedikit rintangan untuk harga spot kekal ke bawah. Laporan perjanjian perdagangan antara A.S. dan Kanada, yang

Irina Yanina 11:33 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Pasaran Menemui Sisi Baik dalam Berita Buruk

Pasaran telah meningkat selama tiga hari berturut-turut, mentafsirkan situasi semasa sebagai ketidakpastian dagangan yang meluas — jauh daripada kejatuhan pasaran. Ini membolehkan pendekatan yang lebih tenang dan rasional. Keadaannya tidak

Marek Petkovich 09:20 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 5 Jun? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Analisis Laporan Ekonomi Makro: Hanya sedikit laporan makroekonomi yang dijadualkan pada hari Khamis. Hanya dua laporan sekunder dari UK dan AS akan menjadi tumpuan pedagang hari ini. Laporan aktiviti sektor

Paolo Greco 06:39 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD – 5 Jun: Britain Adalah Sahabat Terbaik Amerika, tetapi Masih Perlu Membayar

Pasangan mata wang GBP/USD didagangkan dengan agak tenang pada hari Rabu, kerana terdapat beberapa peristiwa dan laporan penting pada hari tersebut. Seperti yang kami jangkakan, indeks aktiviti perniagaan (tidak termasuk

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 5 Jun: Trump Akan Terus Memberi Tekanan ke Atas EU

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD didagangkan dengan sangat tenang pada hari Rabu. Seperti yang kami nyatakan semalam, tiada sebab untuk menjangkakan bahawa indeks aktiviti perniagaan akan mempengaruhi dagangan — terutamanya yang

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Trump Sekali Lagi Gagal Memujuk Powell

Donald Trump dan Jerome Powell mengadakan pertemuan di Rumah Putih minggu lalu. Berita ini kebanyakannya tidak mendapat perhatian kerana maklumat yang terhad diberikan. Hanya maklumat umum tentang pertemuan tersebut yang

Chin Zhao 00:38 2025-06-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Mesyuarat ECB Jun: Pratonton

Pada 5 Jun, Bank Pusat Eropah akan mengakhiri mesyuarat seterusnya. Di satu pihak, hasilnya kelihatan jelas: bank pusat hampir pasti akan menurunkan kadar faedah sebanyak 25 mata asas — untuk

Irina Manzenko 00:38 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Dolar Kembali ke Medan Perang

Apabila tiada kesatuan antara sekutu, keadaan tidak berjalan lancar. Berikutan tuduhan saling antara AS dan China, Donald Trump memberi komen bahawa Xi Jinping adalah seorang yang sangat tegas dan sukar

Marek Petkovich 00:38 2025-06-05 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.