While the euro attempts to stage a correction against the U.S. dollar, a survey of economists suggests that the European Central Bank may delay its final interest rate cut until December.

Most respondents still expect the ECB to implement a final 25 basis point cut in the deposit rate to 1.75% in September, following a pause next week. At the same time, half of the economists believe the ECB could skip three meetings before traders conclude that borrowing costs have reached their lower bound — a longer pause than previously anticipated, largely due to uncertainty over Trump's trade policies.

However, the pause in ECB actions, as expected by most economists, indicates that further rate cuts are viewed as a last resort. The central bank is likely to assess the effects of the measures already taken and monitor the economic outlook before taking additional steps. Uncertainty related to the Trump administration's trade policies is significantly affecting forecasts and market behavior. An escalation in trade disputes between the U.S. and other countries could hamper global trade and investment, thereby weakening economic growth. In this context, the ECB will likely factor geopolitical risks into its monetary policy decisions.

This month, a potential pause has been clearly communicated by officials led by President Christine Lagarde, who has said that the ECB is well positioned to handle any challenges related to economic growth and inflation. However, consensus appears to be weakening.

Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel sees the threshold for further cuts as very high. Olli Rehn of Finland and Francois Villeroy de Galhau of France are concerned that price growth might not reach the 2% target — especially if the euro strengthens further against the dollar.

The July decision is expected to be relatively straightforward, as most Governing Council members will likely support keeping rates unchanged. However, some may view this as merely a pause, while others may interpret it as the end of the rate-cutting cycle, potentially sparking debates over the trajectory of rates after July.

About a quarter of survey participants believe the ECB has already concluded its rate-cutting cycle. Nearly half expect the final cut to occur in September, while 21% forecast it will happen in December.

The path policymakers take will largely depend on trade negotiations between Brussels and Washington. After the European Union signaled it was close to reaching an agreement, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs. As long as a trade deal remains elusive, uncertainty will continue to grow.

As for the current EUR/USD technical picture:Buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1655 level. Only then can they aim for a test of 1.1690. From there, the pair may climb to 1.1720, though doing so without support from major players could prove challenging. The furthest target would be the 1.1770 high. In the event of a decline, significant buying interest is expected only near the 1.1598 level. If there is no support there, it would be wise to wait for a new low at 1.1562 or consider opening long positions from 1.1511.

Regarding the GBP/USD technical outlook:Pound buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at 1.3442. Only then will they be able to target 1.3481, above which further progress will likely be difficult. The ultimate target is the 1.3532 level. If the pair falls, bears will try to regain control at 1.3405. A successful break below that range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3368 low, with a further move toward 1.3336 possible.