Bitcoin and Ethereum regained their positions following a major sell-off at the end of last week, which occurred after the outbreak of the military conflict between Iran and Israel. This morning, the price surged above $106,000 after a volatile weekend driven by the ongoing conflict.

The geopolitical instability caused by Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities briefly pushed BTC down by 4%, highlighting Bitcoin's sensitivity to risk-off events. However, the world's first cryptocurrency quickly recovered as investors increasingly view it as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty.

A combination of institutional flows, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical risks shapes Bitcoin's current price movement. The crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at a moderate 61, reflecting optimistic yet cautious investor sentiment.

Institutional investors, previously cautious toward the crypto market, are gradually increasing their exposure to Bitcoin. This is reflected in growing trading volumes on regulated platforms, the expansion of crypto funds, and the development of specialized investment products. These capital inflows support Bitcoin's price, reduce volatility, and add greater stability to the market.

Geopolitical risks—such as conflicts, trade wars, and political instability—also play a role in shaping Bitcoin's price. During heightened uncertainty, investors may seek refuge in Bitcoin, viewing it as an asset independent of political influence. However, large-scale geopolitical crises can spark panic across markets and trigger sell-offs in all assets, including cryptocurrencies.

As for the intraday strategy in the crypto market, I will continue to act based on any major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, aiming to capitalize on the continued development of the medium-term bull market—which remains intact.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at the entry point near $106,700, targeting a rise to $107,900. Around $107,900, I will exit long positions and initiate a sell trade on the bounce.

Before entering a breakout trade, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.

Scenario #2: Buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $106,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting a move back to $106,700 and $107,900.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today at the entry point around $106,000, targeting a decline to $104,900. Around $104,900, I will exit short positions and buy immediately on the bounce.

Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.

Scenario #2: Sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $106,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting a move back to $106,000 and $104,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at the entry point near $2623, targeting a rise to $2676. Around $2676, I will exit long positions and sell immediately on the bounce.

Before entering a breakout trade, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.

Scenario #2: Buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $2596 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting a move back to $2623 and $2676.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today at the entry point around $2596, targeting a decline to $2545. Around $2545, I will exit short positions and buy immediately on the bounce.

Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.

Scenario #2: Sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $2623 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, targeting a move back to $2596 and $2545.