empty
04.06.2025 02:16 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on June 4th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1391 level and planned to base trading decisions around it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A rise and formation of a false breakout near 1.1391 provided an entry point for selling the euro, but as you can see on the chart, there was no significant decline in the pair. The technical picture was revised for the second half of the day.

This image is no longer relevant

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

PMI data for all eurozone countries except Germany for May were revised upward, which restored bullish momentum to the EUR/USD pair — although it didn't lead to a major upward move. There is still plenty of data ahead that could change the situation. Attention will turn to the ADP employment change data for May, as well as the U.S. services PMI and composite PMI. The day will end with speeches by FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Lisa D. Cook. In case of a decline on strong data, focus will shift to defending the 1.1361 support, formed during the first half of the day. A false breakout there would be a signal to buy EUR/USD, aiming for an update of the high around 1.1413. A breakout and retest of this range would confirm a proper entry point, with a move toward the 1.1453 area. The ultimate target would be 1.1490, where I would take profits.

If EUR/USD declines and there is no buying activity around 1.1361, pressure on the pair will return, leading to a larger drop. In that case, bears could push the pair down to 1.1314. Only after a false breakout form would I consider buying the euro. Alternatively, I would open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1270, aiming for an intraday upward correction of 30–35 points.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers did everything they could in the first half of the day, but it wasn't enough to resume the downward trend in the euro. At the same time, it's hard to say that pressure on the euro has fully returned. It's better to wait for the U.S. statistics and the market's reaction before making any decisions.

A false breakout near the 1.1413 resistance will be a signal to sell, aiming for a drop toward 1.1361 support. A breakout and consolidation below this range will be a suitable scenario for selling, targeting 1.1314. The ultimate target would be 1.1270, where I would take profits.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and there is no active bearish action around 1.1413, where moving averages (favoring the bears) are also located slightly below, buyers could achieve a larger rally and update 1.1453. I would only sell after a failed consolidation at this level. Alternatively, I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1490, targeting a 30–35 point downward correction.

This image is no longer relevant

The COT (Commitments of Traders) report for May 27 showed a reduction in both long and short positions. However, the advantage still lies with the buyers. Traders are preparing for the next ECB meeting, where another rate cut is expected. However, many economists believe this could be the last cut before the regulator pauses for an extended period, potentially strengthening the euro in the short term. Add to that the upcoming U.S. GDP and labor market reports, and the week promises to be quite intense.

According to the COT report, long non-commercial positions decreased by 1,716 to 204,326. Short non-commercial positions fell by 6,737 to 124,852. Thus, the gap between long and short positions narrowed by 2,778.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:Trading is occurring below the 30- and 50-period moving averages, indicating a decline in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are based on the author's analysis of the H1 chart and differ from the classical daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.1361 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average: Defines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. 50-period (marked in yellow); 30-period (marked in green)
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – 12-period; Slow EMA – 26-period; SMA – 9-period
  • Bollinger Bands: 20-period
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators like individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes
  • Long non-commercial positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders
  • Short non-commercial positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders
  • Net non-commercial position: The difference between short and long positions among non-commercial traders
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on August 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also corrected slightly lower on Thursday amid the high PPI reading. As we have already mentioned, even such

Paolo Greco 06:13 2025-08-15 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on August 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded lower. Four macroeconomic reports were published during the day, three of which had no impact

Paolo Greco 06:13 2025-08-15 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for GBP/USD on August 15: The Pound Pulled Back Slightly

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded lower, with the U.S. Producer Price Index being the main driver. Initially, we assumed that this indicator was unlikely to provoke

Paolo Greco 03:50 2025-08-15 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on August 15: Inflation Sank the Dollar, Inflation Also Lent a Hand

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a decent decline, which fully aligns with the current technical picture. It should be noted that an uptrend does not mean the price

Paolo Greco 03:50 2025-08-15 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on August 14? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also continued moving north on Wednesday, although there were no local reasons for this. Nevertheless, the British pound keeps

Paolo Greco 06:49 2025-08-14 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on August 14? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. It was not a strong rise, but it was upward, in line

Paolo Greco 06:49 2025-08-14 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for GBP/USD on August 14: The Pound Surprises for the Second Day

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, despite the absence of significant reports, news from Donald Trump, and fundamental events during the day. Once again, we draw

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-08-14 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on August 14: Inflation Continues to Pressure the Dollar

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, despite the absence of any important events or reports during the day. However, the broader fundamental backdrop — driven

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-08-14 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on August 13? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also showed a relatively strong upward move, but unlike EUR/USD, it began rising from early morning. Data from

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-08-13 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on August 13? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded higher for a completely logical reason. The US Consumer Price Index showed a very unexpected

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-08-13 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.