empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
12.05.2025 09:18 AM
The Market Will Face Reality
Open trading account Open demo account

How quickly things change on the financial markets! Before America's Liberation Day, investors viewed the 10% universal import tariff as disastrous. Now, it's seen as the most favorable option. The S&P 500 has climbed 14% from its April lows, erasing all losses since the imposition of the highest U.S. tariffs since the early 20th century. But is this justified, considering the tariff burden remains at very high levels despite being reduced?

Most of the spring rally in the S&P 500 was emotionally driven. Investors were buying the rumor that the April 2 tariffs were the peak and would soon be lowered, making it an "ideal" time to buy stocks. According to Bank of America, the time has come to "sell the fact," meaning the upward movement of the broad equity index is likely over.

This is supported by Bloomberg's model tracking S&P 500 corporate earnings, which has now moved into the red zone, indicating a potential deterioration in financial results. Historically, this does not bode well for equities. In seven previous cases when the index entered the red zone, the S&P 500 dropped by an average of 5.6% over the following 12 months.

S&P 500 Companies' Expected Earnings Trajectory

This image is no longer relevant

This seems quite plausible. Donald Trump believes that reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 80% would be "fair"—but only if China reopens access to its markets for U.S. companies. According to Bloomberg, S&P 500 companies on average earn 6.1% of their revenue from selling goods in China or to Chinese companies. Beijing's 125% retaliatory tariffs would significantly worsen their financial performance.

Bilateral trade between the U.S. and China is valued at $700 billion. China has invested $1.4 trillion in the U.S. An escalation of the trade war would be harmful not only to the largest Asian economy, whose exports are already suffering, but also to the U.S. Growing recession risks would exert serious pressure on the S&P 500.

China's Export, Import, and Trade Balance Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

In this context, statements from White House officials about progress in U.S.-China negotiations—and a potential agreement whose details may be announced on Monday—sounded like music to the ears of stock market bulls. Still, the market has long been driven by emotion. Is it now time to face the truth? The trade war threatens both economic growth and corporate profits. Against this backdrop, the stock market rally appears excessive.

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 shows a high probability of forming a bearish reversal pattern known as Anti-Turtles, highlighted by a candlestick with a long upper shadow. A drop below 5635 would trigger a sell signal for the broad index.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Technical analysis
EUR/USD. May 23rd. Smart Money System Analysis After the breakdown of the bearish structure, we witnessed a strong rally in the euro, which, as of now, cannot be considered complete. The new bullish structure remains intact
Samir Klishi
20:09 2025-05-23 +02:00
3535
Crypto-currencies
Bitcoin. May 23rd. Smart Money System Analysis Bitcoin continues to form a bullish trend structure. One could argue whether there are real reasons for a new bullish trend at the moment, but the chart suggests only that—unambiguously
Samir Klishi
20:04 2025-05-23 +02:00
3040
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Gold Rebounds as Fiscal Risks Resurface

Gold is swinging between extremes as spring draws to a close. The week ending May 16 was the worst for the precious metal due to optimism that, following a trade
Marek Petkovich 17:31 2025-05-23 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the AUD/JPY pair has started to attract buying interest, halting its pullback from the monthly high as demand for the Australian dollar emerges. Today's talks between U.S. Deputy Secretary
Irina Yanina 17:25 2025-05-23 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The pair is trending lower, dropping close to the key psychological level of 1.3800 amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. Traders have raised their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts following
Irina Yanina 16:43 2025-05-23 UTC+2

USD declares war on EUR

What's new is often just what's been forgotten. As spring draws to a close, the long-dismissed mantra "sell America" is making a comeback in markets. The phrase gained traction following
Marek Petkovich 14:59 2025-05-23 UTC+2

USD/JPY: what happens with yen?

The USD/JPY pair is experiencing heightened price turbulence. At the end of April, the pair sharply declined, hitting a 7-month low at 139.90. Then, last week, a northbound impulse pushed
Irina Manzenko 13:52 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Market Chaos to Continue (There is a likelihood of continued local declines in #USDX and gold prices)

Markets continue to act blindly amid the chaotic actions of Donald Trump, who is trying to pull the U.S. out of a deep, all-encompassing crisis like Baron Munchausen pulling himself
Pati Gani 10:19 2025-05-23 UTC+2

The Market Tucks Its Tail

A necessary project at the wrong time. The House of Representatives has approved Donald Trump's tax cut initiative. The President hopes it will help stimulate the economy and offset shortcomings
Marek Petkovich 09:29 2025-05-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 23: No Talks, but Hang in There

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly, but like EUR/USD, it has been rising for two weeks. At first glance, one might wonder what reasons traders have
Paolo Greco 08:15 2025-05-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 23: The Rebellion Against the Dollar Continues

The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Thursday, yet it has risen significantly over the past two weeks. This movement can be interpreted in several ways. From a technical
Paolo Greco 08:15 2025-05-23 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 23? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. Only two are noteworthy: the final estimate of Germany's Q1 GDP and April's UK retail sales data. The German GDP report
Paolo Greco 05:58 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 06:00 2025-05-26 UTC--4
Gold Rebounds as Fiscal Risks Resurface
17:31 2025-05-23
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 12:00 UTC--4
Trading Signals for GOLD for May 23-27, 2025: sell below $3,360 (7/8 Murray - 21 SMA)
18:14 2025-05-23
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 08:00 2025-05-27 UTC--4
Canadian Inflation Resumed Growth. USD/CAD Overview
00:23 2025-05-23
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 12:00 UTC--4
Trading Signals for BITCOIN for May 23-27, 2025: sell below $108,700 (200 EMA - 21 SMA)
18:16 2025-05-23
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 05:00 2025-05-26 UTC--4
Update on US stock market on May 23. Correction underway
14:53 2025-05-23
Stock Markets
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.