empty
09.05.2025 11:24 AM
Forecast for EUR/USD on May 9, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1338, turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, and fell below the support zone of 1.1240–1.1265. A rebound from this zone from below today would signal a continuation of the decline toward 1.1182 and 1.1074. Conversely, a consolidation above 1.1265 would support the euro and resume growth toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1338.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. This suggests a potential trend shift to a "bearish" one. Recent waves have been weak and shallow, indicating low trader activity. There hasn't been much news from the White House; traders are awaiting results from trade agreement negotiations. Nevertheless, the dollar has started to recover.

There was practically no economic news on Thursday, but traders were still digesting the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell's speech. The Fed's decision to hold rates was long anticipated, so attention was focused on Powell's tone. As usual, Powell reassured markets, saying there's no cause for concern. He mentioned that inflation might increase slightly and temporarily. The U.S. economy slowed in Q1, but a recovery is expected in Q2. Despite Trump's imposition of high tariffs on many countries, trade agreements are expected to eventually improve the situation. Powell made it clear the Fed isn't going to react to every geopolitical shift and prefers to wait for clarity on U.S. trade policy before adjusting monetary policy.

Traders had expected a more "dovish" tone from Powell, but bears began to act only a day after his speech. Better late than never.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair dropped to the 100.0% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1213. A rebound from this level will favor the euro and a rise toward the 127.2% level at 1.1495. A break below 1.1213 combined with a move below the trendline would increase the chances of further decline toward the 76.4% level at 1.0969. No divergence signals are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

Over the last reporting week, professional traders opened 183 Long positions and closed 10,586 Short positions. The "Non-commercial" trader group has returned to a clearly "bullish" sentiment—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of Long positions held by speculators now stands at 196,000, while Shorts total 120,000. Just months ago, the situation was the opposite.

For 20 weeks, major players were shedding euros, but they've now spent 12 consecutive weeks unwinding Short positions and adding Long positions. The difference in monetary policy direction between the ECB and the Fed still favors the dollar, but Trump's policies remain a key factor for traders, as they could have a "dovish" influence on the FOMC or even trigger a U.S. recession.

News Calendar for the U.S. and EU – May 9:

No important events are scheduled for today. The news background will likely have no influence on market sentiment this Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Sales were possible from the rebound at 1.1374 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1265—which has been reached. Today, consider selling on a rebound from the 1.1240–1.1265 resistance zone with targets at 1.1182 and 1.1074. Buying can be considered on a bounce from 1.1213 on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.1338.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1265–1.1574 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/USD pair is attracting new sellers following its recent rebound from the 1.3415 level, amid modest gains in the U.S. dollar. However, today, the potential for further downside appears

Irina Yanina 13:24 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair sharply reversed in favor of the euro and rose into the resistance zone of 1.1374–1.1380. A rebound from this zone favored the U.S. dollar

Samir Klishi 10:58 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 30, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair dropped to the 1.3425 level on Thursday, then rebounded and reversed in favor of the British pound. This initiated a growth process toward

Samir Klishi 10:41 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forex forecast 30/05/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, SP500, Gold, and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 09:30 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2025

Like other anti-dollar currencies, the euro quickly overcame the negative news from the U.S. Court of International Trade and closed the day with a 76-pip gain. This morning, the price

Laurie Bailey 05:26 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 30, 2025

On Thursday, the British pound reached the target support level of 1.3433, after which it reversed to the upside, closing the day with a 20-pip gain. The Marlin oscillator slowly

Laurie Bailey 05:26 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Forecast for USD/JPY on May 30, 2025

The Japanese yen made a significant move yesterday, falling more than two figures from the day's high to the close. The powerful wave of yen strengthening continues today, starting from

Laurie Bailey 05:26 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD for May 29-30, 2025: sell below $3,317 (7/8 Murray - 21 SMA)

Early in the American session, gold is trading around 3,314 with a strong technical rebound originating after reaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Gold rose sharply after testing

Dimitrios Zappas 15:58 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 29-30, 2025: sell below 1.1360 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, the euro is trading around 1.1331 and is experiencing a strong technical rebound after reaching the 4/8 Murray level at 1.1230. The euro could rise

Dimitrios Zappas 15:53 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 29, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to decline and consolidated below the support zone at 1.1260–1.1282. Therefore, today's price drop may continue toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6%

Samir Klishi 11:15 2025-05-29 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.