empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
30.04.2025 01:09 PM
Canadian Dollar Preparing for a Breakout
Open trading account Open demo account

Retail sales in Canada fell by 0.4% month-over-month in February but rebounded in March with a strong increase of 0.7%. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales declined to 4.7% in February, down from a revised 5.3% in January.

Retail sales in Canada fell by 0.4% month-over-month in February but rebounded in March with a strong increase of 0.7%. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales declined to 4.7% in February, down from a revised 5.3% in January. One of the drivers of increased spending was concern over new U.S. tariffs, which prompted consumers to stock up in advance—therefore, spending is likely to show a decline going forward.

This image is no longer relevant

Today, GDP data for Canada covering February and March will be published, though it is unlikely to have a significant market impact. Instead, the market will be watching the release of the initial U.S. GDP estimate with much greater interest, followed by the U.S. jobs report on Friday. Canada's GDP showed steady growth throughout 2024, but the uncertainty that emerged after the onset of trade wars could erase all the gains.

Even a slight slowdown in Canadian GDP growth may turn out to be inconsequential, as the first estimate of U.S. Q1 GDP—due today—could show a much worse result. If pessimistic expectations are confirmed, a spike in volatility is inevitable and will likely lead to another wave of U.S. dollar selling.

Canada has held its federal elections, with Liberal leader Mark Carney winning by a narrow margin, as expected. Carney previously served as Governor of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada. He is considered a political heavyweight, and his main task is believed to be helping Canada withstand pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. "America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country," Carney said in his victory speech. "These are not empty threats. President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, ever happen."

The loonie barely reacted to the election results but is expected to respond to Carney's subsequent actions. Since he won by a narrow margin, he will be forced to form a minority government, which is likely to put some pressure on the CAD. However, a large-scale sell-off of the Canadian dollar seems unlikely at this stage.

The Bank of Canada will hold its next meeting on June 4, which leaves ample time to assess both Carney's initial steps and the overall state of the economy. At its last meeting, the BoC kept the rate unchanged at 2.75%, and if incoming data proves weak, further rate cuts may follow, putting additional pressure on the Canadian dollar.

The net short position on the CAD dropped by a notable $1.15 billion over the reporting week, to –$4.86 billion. The reduction has been particularly pronounced over the past two weeks, and while speculative positioning still favors the U.S. dollar, the fair value has finally diverged from the long-term average with a clear intention to move lower.

This image is no longer relevant

We expect USD/CAD to move lower from current levels toward the 1.3410–1.3430 range. The pair spent the past week in consolidation, but a likely upward correction following a fairly strong decline never occurred, meaning the risk of a corrective bounce remains. The strong resistance zone at 1.4130–1.4160 is unlikely to be reached—resuming the downtrend would require a strong catalyst, which could arrive today following the release of a broad set of U.S. economic statistics.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.