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30.04.2025 06:28 AM
What to Pay Attention to on April 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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A considerable number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday, but we doubt they will have any meaningful impact on currency pair movements. The market continues to ignore most macroeconomic developments. Reports out of Germany — including retail sales, unemployment, inflation, and GDP — appear significant, but they relate to just one Eurozone country, albeit its largest economy. The Eurozone-wide preliminary estimate for Q1 2025 GDP will also be released today, but historically, the market has reacted calmly to GDP data. In the U.S., both GDP and ADP employment reports are due. Still, the GDP report is likely to be overlooked, and ADP is considered a "junior version" of the NonFarm Payrolls report, which receives far more market attention. Some volatility driven by these data points is possible today, but it wouldn't be surprising if the euro ends the day still trapped in its sideways channel.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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There is still little point in discussing any fundamental events besides Trump's trade war. The dollar's decline can continue indefinitely as long as Donald Trump keeps imposing new tariffs or raising existing ones. Any escalation could lead to further dollar weakness—any de-escalation — to dollar strengthening. The U.S. president has begun softening his rhetoric toward China, but this cannot be considered true de-escalation. Knowing Trump, it wouldn't be surprising if he ends up raising them again after promising to lower tariffs on China.

Trump recently stated that he does not intend to keep tariffs on Chinese goods at the 145% level — a statement that brought relief across markets. However, the dollar showed no sign of optimism in response. The market sees no clear evidence of de-escalation and thus remains reluctant to buy the U.S. currency. Even on Monday, without any news, the market opted to sell dollars again.

General Conclusions:

On the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs could move in either direction. A flat trend may persist for the euro as the market ignores the entire macroeconomic background. Therefore, today's long list of economic releases looks impressive only on paper. The pound sterling, meanwhile, continues to show a much greater willingness to rise — and it doesn't need any news to do so.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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