empty
10.04.2025 12:12 PM
Forecast for GBP/USD on April 10, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 1.2865 level on Wednesday, experienced a slight decline, and today returned to that same level. Another rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and signal a decline toward the 1.2709 level. A consolidation above 1.2865 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next resistance level at 1.2931.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation has become confusing recently. The last completed upward wave broke the previous wave's peak, while the new downward wave easily broke the previous low. This may suggest a trend reversal to bearish, but considering the latest events, the strength of price moves, and the frequency of directional changes, I would refrain from drawing such conclusions. In my view, market sentiment could shift multiple times again. Everything will depend on how the trade war develops.

The informational background on Wednesday supported the dollar—but only briefly. Bears welcomed the news of Donald Trump announcing a grace period, but their joy was short-lived. Understandably so: the trade war is far from over, and Trump could reverse his decision at any moment, as he's done many times before. Many are used to governmental decisions having a clear duration or at least a specific timeframe. But Trump can introduce tariffs and revoke them within the same day. China barely had time to receive an additional 50% tariff before another one followed. Now the U.S. import duty on Chinese goods stands at 125%, while China's tariff on U.S. goods is 84%. Who's leading? Today, a lot of news is expected once again. The U.S. will also release an inflation report, which could show one of the last low readings before a renewed rise in consumer prices. I doubt this data will help the bears.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair maintains a bullish trend. Even a consolidation below the rising channel won't convince me the trend has reversed. The trade war continues to escalate, and over recent months, this has only led to a weakening of the dollar. Either way, chart analysis alone can't answer what to expect next—the informational background drives the market now.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

Sentiment in the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,030, while short positions increased by 5,627. Bears have lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short positions now stands at 35,000 in favor of the bulls: 105,000 versus 70,000.

In my opinion, the pound still has downside potential, but recent developments could push the market into a long-term reversal. Over the last three months, the number of long positions has risen from 80,000 to 105,000, while short positions have fallen from 80,000 to 70,000. More importantly, over the past nine weeks, long positions have increased from 59,000 to 105,000, while short ones have dropped from 81,000 to 70,000. Let me remind you—this has all happened during "nine weeks of Trump's rule."

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

  • U.S. – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

Thursday's economic calendar includes two U.S. events, one of which is quite important. Thus, the informational background will influence trader sentiment during the second half of the day. Any new developments in the trade war will also have an impact.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is advisable today upon a second rebound from the 1.2865 level, targeting 1.2709. Buying opportunities were available after a close above 1.2810 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.2865 and 1.2931. The first target has been reached. Positions can be held if the price closes above 1.2865.

Fibonacci levels are built from 1.2809–1.2100 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The pair is attempting to attract buyers, but spot prices remain close to a yearly low and appear vulnerable to further decline. The Canadian dollar is supported by reports

Irina Yanina 15:33 2025-06-06 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/JPY pair continues to demonstrate stable positive dynamics. Spot prices remain near a three-week high. Factors supporting the rise of EUR/JPY include disappointing data on household spending in Japan

Irina Yanina 11:21 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 6, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement but made two rebounds from the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1454, suggesting a potential reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar

Samir Klishi 11:09 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 6, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rose to the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620, rebounded from it, and turned in favor of the U.S. dollar. A decline began

Samir Klishi 11:03 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forex forecast 06/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, SP500, Oil, Ethereum and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 09:51 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 6, 2025

Yesterday, the ECB as expected cut key rates by a quarter point, bringing the refinancing rate to 2.15%. At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that rates have

Laurie Bailey 08:21 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 6, 2025

GBP/USD Amid yesterday's brief optimism over the ECB's decision to cut rates and nearly complete the easing cycle, the pound almost reached the target level of 1.3635. Today began neutrally

Laurie Bailey 08:17 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Forecast for USD/JPY on June 6, 2025

As of this morning, the USD/JPY pair has found itself in a completely dual situation, with an equal likelihood of both growth and decline. Indicators suggesting growth include the price

Laurie Bailey 08:13 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 6-10, 2025: buy above 1.1080 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)

The eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we believe that if the euro falls below the 6/8 Murray level in the coming hours, it will be seen

Dimitrios Zappas 07:04 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 6-10, 2025: buy above $3,365 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

On the other hand, gold is expected to undergo a technical correction. On May 30, it left a gap around 3,284, and if it consolidates below 3,350, it could likely

Dimitrios Zappas 07:01 2025-06-06 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.