Forex Analysis & Reviews: 02.04.2025 - BTC/USD Analysis. April 2nd....

Live Chat

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

02.04.2025 12:17 PM

BTC/USD Analysis. April 2nd. Bitcoin Is Also Afraid of Trump's Tariffs

The wave pattern on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart is clear. After completing a bullish trend composed of five full waves, a downward corrective phase began, which is still in progress. Based on this, I did not—and still do not—expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

The news backdrop had been supporting Bitcoin thanks to a steady flow of headlines about new investments from institutional traders, various governments, and pension funds. However, Trump and his policies have caused investors to exit the market—no trend can rise indefinitely. The wave that began on January 20 does not resemble an impulsive one. Thus, we are dealing with a complex corrective structure that could take months to form. Internally, this first wave is quite intricate, but a five-wave a-b-c-d-e structure within it can be distinguished. If the current wave count is correct, we are now seeing the formation of an upward corrective wave, which in classical theory consists of three waves. Waves a and b appear to be complete.

The BTC/USD rate has stabilized, and the current wave count suggests further upward movement. But how strong might this growth be? Many in the market panic if Bitcoin drops by $10,000–$15,000. However, given Bitcoin's extreme volatility, such a move can occur in just a few days. The price fell $33,000 from its all-time high—and even that correction doesn't seem excessive enough to expect a fresh bullish trend.

Therefore, I anticipate a corrective wave or series of waves, after which the broader corrective structure will continue to develop.

At the moment, Bitcoin is consolidating, and the market is waiting. Some might view a drop to $80,000 as sufficient—but let me remind you of the period from November 2021 to November 2022, when Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $16,000. Back then, economists and crypto analysts also predicted continued growth and a target of $100,000, but Bitcoin lost nearly 80% of its value. Why couldn't a similar scenario unfold now?

That previous decline lasted a full year. This one has been unfolding for only 2.5 months. Trump may announce new global tariffs as soon as today, and under Donald Trump, Bitcoin tends to fall. It's quite symbolic that the decline began on January 20—Trump's inauguration day.

Given the above and the current wave structure, I believe the downtrend will continue.

General Conclusions

Based on the BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that the current growth phase is over. All signs point toward a complex, multi-month correction. That's why I have previously advised against buying crypto—and now, even more so. A drop below the low of wave 4 indicates a transition into a downward trend phase, most likely of a corrective nature.

In this context, the best strategy is to look for selling opportunities. A short-term upward corrective wave may occur soon, during which new short positions can be considered with targets near $68,000 and possibly as low as $55,000.

Higher Timeframe Outlook

On the higher wave scale, a five-wave bullish structure is visible. We are now witnessing the beginning of a corrective or bearish wave structure, potentially marking a new downtrend.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex formations are difficult to trade and often lead to revisions.
If there's no confidence in the market situation, it's better to stay out.Absolute certainty in market direction is never possible. Always use Stop Loss orders.
Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.