empty
22.01.2024 03:22 PM
BTC takes nosedive defying bullish expectations

This image is no longer relevant

After Bitcoin's rally to $48,500 or the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the crypto took a nosedive and plunged by $8,000. Let us remind you that two weeks ago the US Securities and Exchange Commission greenlighted all applications from 14 asset management firms for the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which immediately triggered a rally of the flagship cryptocurrency. Many experts were betting on an explosive growth of the most popular token as institutional investors will immediately rush to invest billions in the new Bitcoin-based exchange instrument. However, in practice, this did not happen. Of course, some investments were allocated to BlackRock, Fidelity, and other firms, but the amount of short positions on BTC turned out to be way larger. The old rule worked out: buy the rumor, sell the fact.

Bitcoin has been growing for more than a year, although sometimes without clear-cut specific reasons for this. Previously, we pinpointed three key bullish factors for Bitcoin, namely, the future Fed rate cut, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the upcoming halving. These reasons were priced in and worked out by the market long ago. Investors were buying Bitcoin starting in November 2022 based on these expectations. If this is so, then it will be very difficult for the number one crypto to extend its growth.

We are not fans of the theory that Bitcoin's rally is set to last forever, as many experts predict. We do not believe that Bitcoin is "obliged" to grow just because each "halving" doubles the cost of mining one coin. It is already known that after the halving, the cost of mining one BTC token will be $37,800.

However, this does not mean that demand will necessarily increase. You are aware that it is not the cost of production (mining in this case) that determines the price of a particular asset. Supply and demand determine the price. If there is no demand for BTC or it is small, then the price can be at least $100,000 per coin, but this will prevent people from buying Bitcoin at $120,000.

This image is no longer relevant

We believe that a point is coming when the world will begin to shift focus away from this asset. First, thousands of alternative coins and digital assets have been already designed. Why should only Bitcoin be in demand? Secondly, Bitcoin never became a "replacement for money", "a means of protection against inflation", and "an instrument for storing value". Yes, so far it is only getting more expensive (if we take the long term). But no asset that, in fact, does not bring any benefit can rise in price forever. Bitcoin is increasingly becoming a "toy for the rich" or simply an investment tool. You can make money on it, but it's unlikely to be used for other purposes everywhere.

In the 24-hour time frame, Bitcoin pulled back to $40,746. We reckon that the downward movement will continue since the market has already fully taken into account the approval of the Bitcoin ETF and is now taking profits on longs. Overcoming the level of $40,746 will allow the cryptocurrency to be sold with a target of $34,267. This is a very realistic goal, despite all the mind-blowing forecasts that experts regularly share with us. A rebound from the level of $40,746 could provoke a new bullish sequence with targets at $45,256 and $48,500.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Stanislav Polyanskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Litecoin is attempting to test its nearest resistance level, Friday, July 11, 2025.

Litecoin, Friday, July 11, 2025. Litecoin managed to break through and close above its pivot level. Although there is potential for a correction, positive fundamental factors provide an opportunity

Arief Makmur 08:00 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Trading tips for crypto market on July 10 (North American session)

Bitcoin and Ethereum traded higher today during the European session, which indicates that yesterday's purchases were not a one-time event and that buyers are still active in the market. This

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:25 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Crypto market shows extremely low volatility

Bitcoin volatility has dropped to a historic low, while Bitcoin itself is trading within 2% of its all-time high. The lack of willingness to buy at current prices could become

Jakub Novak 13:46 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Crypto market resilient despite dollar volatility

BTC/USD is rising again today after yesterday's dip, overall maintaining its bullish momentum. Fundamentally, conditions continue to support BTC/USD growth in the medium term. The global economic and market landscape

Jurij Tolin 14:14 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Japan's digital bank by Metaplanet

While Bitcoin stubbornly refuses to decline, fueled by massive demand from ETF funds, the Japanese firm Metaplanet is planning to use its Bitcoin reserves to create the first digital bank

Jakub Novak 13:46 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Trading tips for crypto market on July 8

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain on a sound footing, poised to continue a bullish trend. As long as BTC continues trading above the $105,000 mark, the odds of further growth

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:16 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Clarity act on digital asset market gains support

Bitcoin and Ethereum have returned to the channels in which they spent most of last week. While Bitcoin has yet to break above the $109,000 mark, the prospects

Jakub Novak 11:00 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Elon Musk's America party advocates for Bitcoin and digital assets

The recently formed political party, America Party led by Elon Musk, will support Bitcoin. This was announced by the Tesla CEO himself on social media. "Fiat is hopeless

Jakub Novak 15:31 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Bitcoin will test its Support.1 after successfully breaking through and closing below the Uptrendline intraday chart, Friday, July 4, 2024.

Bitcoin – Friday, July 4, 2025. With an inflow into the Bitcoin ETF around USD$ 50 billion, it shows strong interest from investors, thus strengthening the legitimacy of this cryptocurrency

Arief Makmur 07:58 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Ripple has the potential to correct and weaken down to the Support level of 2.1924, Friday, July 4, 2025.

Ripple – Friday, July 4, 2025 Friendly regulatory pressure and the case with the SEC that seems to be stopped and open interest in the derivatives market that has jumped

Arief Makmur 07:58 2025-07-04 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.