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16.04.2025 11:41 AM
USD/CHF 分析與預測
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今天,美元/瑞士法郎(USD/CHF)貨幣對吸引了新賣家,在當前的經濟環境下顯現出疲弱跡象,這主要由幾個關鍵因素所推動。

疲弱的美國美元:追蹤美元兌一籃子貨幣走勢的美元指數,交易水平位於2022年4月以來的最低點,反映出市場對美國經濟的信心下降。外界預期聯邦儲備系統很快會重啟降息周期——可能在2025年大幅降低100個基點,進一步削弱了美元的吸引力。

聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾預計将在即將發表的演講中傳遞有關未來貨幣政策方向的重要信號。

貿易政策的不確定性:儘管美中貿易戰中的互相徵收關稅暫時中止,但圍繞該問題的不確定性仍然令市場承壓。前總統特朗普的不斷變化立場增添了不可預測性,加劇了投資者情緒的壓力。所有這些因素都提升了瑞士法郎的吸引力,使其成為避險資產。

從根本上看,目前的背景表明,阻力最小的路線仍然是下行,支持了這一三個月熊市趨勢的延續。

從技術層面看,日線圖上的震盪指標進入超賣區域,這意味著在下降趨勢恢復之前,市場可能需要一些整固或修正。技術反彈可能推動該貨幣對向0.8270水平發展。突破該阻力位可能會觸發空頭回補的行情,並有可能推動該貨幣對向心理關口0.8400靠攏。

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為尋求更佳的交易機會,建議等待聯儲主席鮑威爾今天稍後在美國交易時段的講話,這可能為降息前景提供明確指引。此外,美國零售銷售數據可能會對美元和USD/CHF貨幣對產生影響。強勁的數據可能對美元形成支撐,而疲弱的數據則可能加速其下跌。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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