empty
19.01.2024 03:24 PM
Dollar: Short-Term and Medium-Term Outlook

This image is no longer relevant

At the end of the week, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains in a range, standing slightly above (by 16 points) the 103.00 mark as of this writing. Meanwhile, the dollar itself, while remaining stable against European currencies, is declining against major commodity currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars.

These currencies, in turn, have resumed their growth against the backdrop of rising U.S. stock indexes, commodity prices, and the dollar's fall against the Chinese yuan.

The strengthening of commodity currencies against the U.S. dollar is also facilitated by technical factors: the pairs USD/CAD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, as a result of sharp movements, have reached key medium-term resistance/support levels of 1.3485, 0.6105, 0.6600, respectively, which is often followed by a rebound.

This image is no longer relevant

The strong bullish impulse for the dollar that emerged at the beginning of the week due to the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea region seems to be gradually fading. However, a new escalation of the military conflict in Gaza or a new exchange of strikes by the U.S. and the Houthis could once again trigger a surge in interest in buying the safe-haven dollar. It is possible that Monday may open with another gap in such a case.

Today, investors will be monitoring the release (at 15:00 GMT) of the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan. An increase in the index is expected in January, rising to 70 from 69.7 in December, which could give the dollar a short-term boost.

This image is no longer relevant

Also, note that there will be no statements from the Fed over the weekend in anticipation of the meeting on January 31–February 1 (the so-called "quiet week").

Everything that the members of the Federal Reserve's leadership wanted to say regarding the prospects of the U.S. Central Bank's monetary policy, they have already done so. Specifically, Raphael Bostic, head of the Atlanta Fed, said on Thursday that the base scenario involves a cut in rates somewhere in the third quarter, but care must be taken not to lower rates prematurely or risk reigniting the price spiral.

Other Fed leaders have previously expressed similar sentiments about the market's premature expectations of the Fed's monetary policy easing. For example, Fed official Christopher Waller stated the day before that the inflation target of 2.0% is "within reach," but it is premature to rush changes in the interest rate, as it is still unclear whether the inflation slowdown is sustainable. In his opinion, the Fed should act cautiously to avoid economic shocks.

Statements made by Fed officials the day before reduce the likelihood of the start of monetary policy easing at the March meeting. Now it stands at less than 60%, according to CME Group data, compared to a 75% probability at the beginning of the week.

In turn, the dollar received support from the weekly jobless claims data published on Thursday. For the reporting week, the number of initial claims fell from 203,000 to 187,000 (forecasted at 207,000), and the number of continuing claims (for the week of January 5) fell from 1.832 million to 1.806 million (forecasted at 1.845 million). The data suggest that the U.S. labor market retains resilience despite the high interest rates set by the Fed, which, along with the resurgence of inflation, prompts the U.S. Central Bank to postpone the start of monetary policy correction to the second half of the year.

Jurij Tolin,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

英美協議已達成,但關稅依然存在

正如預期,英國成為與唐納德·特朗普簽署首份貿易協議的幸運國家。首相Keir Starmer可以被視作傑出的領導者——他成功地與特朗普達成協議,這是極少數人能達到的成就。

Chin Zhao 00:36 2025-06-18 UTC+2

歐元/美元:謹慎與警惕

歐元/美元匯率仍停留在1.15的範圍內,在主要基本面演變的背景下展現出一種“堅忍不拔”的克制。交易員們刻意忽視即便是重要的數據公佈,彷彿在等待 那 一則決定性新聞觸發器,來決定歐元/美元的命運。

Irina Manzenko 00:35 2025-06-18 UTC+2

美元迎來第二次機會

股市迅速逢低買入。石油價格波動劇烈。

Marek Petkovich 00:35 2025-06-18 UTC+2

紐幣/美元。分析與預測

目前,NZD/USD呈現出適度的活躍性並吸引買家。然而,由於市場仍位於熟悉的每週區間內,上行趨勢尚未強勢延續。

Irina Yanina 20:39 2025-06-17 UTC+2

英鎊/美元。分析與預測

在英國消費者物價指數發佈以及美聯儲和英國央行即將舉行的貨幣政策會議之前,英鎊兌美元(GBP/USD)匯率穩定保持在1.3500的關鍵心理水平上方。 目前,GBP/USD在1.3500整數水平之上窄幅波動。

Irina Yanina 20:24 2025-06-17 UTC+2

儘管新西蘭經濟疲軟,紐幣依然不放棄

我們之前提到,新西蘭的經濟目前看起來疲弱,最近的數據並沒有改變這一評估。五月份,採購經理指數(PMI)大幅下滑,製造業指數從53.3降至47.5,進入萎縮區間,而服務業指數更是從48.1降至44.0。

Kuvat Raharjo 12:10 2025-06-17 UTC+2

市場可能再次陷入同樣的陷阱

歷史正在重演。在美國獨立日之前,許多市場參與者認為川普的言詞強而且硬,但行動卻不多,認為美國總統雖然發出許多威脅,但實際行動有限。

Marek Petkovich 11:07 2025-06-17 UTC+2

中東危機作為全球戰爭的前奏...(比特幣和歐元/美元有限下行可能)

美國代理以色列與伊朗之間的飛彈對峙仍在持續。昨日美國總統意外離開在加拿大舉行的七大工業國集團峰會,引發了美國可能更直接介入以色列和伊朗衝突的猜測。

Pati Gani 09:04 2025-06-17 UTC+2

6月17日應注意什麼?新手必看的基本事件分析

週二的經濟日程中只有少數幾個宏觀經濟報告,且都不具備重要性。在歐元區,我們將看到來自ZEW研究所的完全次要的經濟情緒指數。

Paolo Greco 06:38 2025-06-17 UTC+2

英鎊/美元概況 – 6月17日:美聯儲和英國央行會議成為拋售美元的理由

週一,英鎊兌美元匯率相對平穩,呈現看漲偏向。英鎊並不是每天都能達到三年新高,但無論從哪個較長的時間框架看,大多數時間價格走勢是明顯的。

Paolo Greco 03:49 2025-06-17 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.