empty
20.11.2023 02:01 PM
Bitcoin recovers above $37k: new stage of bullish trend?

After several weeks of a sustained upward movement, Bitcoin paused last week. The cryptocurrency traded within the fluctuation range of $35.5k–$38k, testing the upper and lower boundaries of the channel several times. Given the rise in BTC sales associated with profit-taking, the bulls' main target was to maintain the price within the $35.5k–$38k range.

This image is no longer relevant

Thanks to holding this mark, there was a local shift in investor sentiment, increasing cryptocurrency buying volumes. As a result, Bitcoin made an upward surge on Sunday and recovered above $37k. The consolidation above this level can be considered the first signal for a possible retest of the $38k level and further movement towards $40k in the new trading week.

Fundamental Factors

The main fundamental driver for the rise in Bitcoin quotes last week was the news of BlackRock filing an application for a spot ETF for ETH. Investors were also hopeful that the SEC would approve one of the 12 applications for a spot BTC ETF launch, but this did not happen. The regulator also postponed the consideration of Grayscale's application for an ETH futures ETF.

This image is no longer relevant

As for the fundamental macroeconomic background, it remained positive last week due to the continued downward movement in oil prices and a decrease in the inflation rate in the United States. More than 95% of investors do not believe in a Federal Reserve rate hike at the mid-December meeting, according to CME Fedwatch survey data. No publication of key economic indicators is expected this week, so another stage of growth in high-risk assets can be anticipated.

Whales are selling, shrimps are accumulating

Despite the prevailing optimism in the cryptocurrency market, there is a significant increase in the sale of BTC coins for profit-taking. Glassnode reports that the activity of "whale" transactions in the cryptocurrency market accounts for more than 30% of total volumes. Analysts note that, over the past week, large investors have sold more than 30,000 BTC.

This image is no longer relevant

At the same time, the number of wallets with balances from 1 to 100 BTC has decreased by 118 units. The number of wallets with 100+ BTC has also shown a decrease of 19 units. Meanwhile, in the last month, 1.5 million new addresses with less than 1 BTC each have appeared in the Bitcoin network. In other words, there is a gradual capital redistribution and profit-taking by large investors, increasing pressure on the BTC price but not critically so far.

BTC/USD Analysis

Bitcoin spent the weekend in relative calm, thanks to a drop in trading activity from sellers. The cryptocurrency consolidated on Saturday to make a local upward surge on Sunday and solidify above $37k. As of November 20th, BTC/USD is trading at $37.1k, with daily trading volumes around $14 billion. The Fear and Greed Index stands at 72, indicating significant demand for purchasing BTC.

This image is no longer relevant

Simultaneously, there is a trend of decreasing buyer activity in the BTC network. The MACD indicator, a lagging indicator, signals a substantial increase in bearish volumes in the cryptocurrency market. The stochastic oscillator is also forming a bearish crossover, which may indicate readiness for another stage of decline. Summing up the technical aspects, there is a divergence where Bitcoin prices are rising amid prevailing sales and weakness in those metrics.

This image is no longer relevant

The current rise in BTC is likely of an inertial nature, and the main stage of growth may already be completed. However, nominally, Bitcoin still has a chance to realize a retest of $38k as long as it holds the base of the local upward channel at $35.5k. The chances of such a retest significantly increase as the $37k level is maintained.

Conclusions

Globally, Bitcoin remains extremely overbought, and daily sales volumes are increasing. However, the positive macroeconomic background, the maintenance of key support levels, and the "greed" in the market prevent the cryptocurrency from entering the long-awaited correction. The main events of the current week will revolve around the $37k level—if maintained, the BTC price is likely to retest $38k. Also, attention will be on the $35.5k level, a breach of which would initiate a full-fledged corrective movement.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

萊特幣加密貨幣 2025 年 6 月 5 日星期四日內價格波動的技術分析。

在萊特幣加密貨幣的4小時圖上,出現了一個擴展下降楔形形態,這表明在不久的將來將會有增強的趨勢。儘管目前萊特幣有向下修正至85.33的潛力,但只要此下行修正沒有跌破並收在83.65以下,萊特幣依然有潛力再次上升至92.69的水平,如果增強的波動性和動能支援,下一個目標將瞄準於95.17。

Arief Makmur 09:53 2025-06-05 UTC+2

6月5日加密貨幣市場交易建議

比特幣正面臨著頻繁達不到 106,000 美元的困境,並且更多時候會回落至 104,000 美元,這對短期而言是一個相當令人擔憂的信號。這種模式遲早可能會導致 BTC 的更大回調,甚至可能引發強烈的拋售。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:20 2025-06-05 UTC+2

6月4日加密貨幣市場交易建議

比特幣和以太坊持續嘗試突破關鍵阻力位,但一直面臨相同的障礙。 一方面,這表明主要市場玩家採取謹慎的態度,並持觀望立場。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:19 2025-06-04 UTC+2

BTC與全球M2流動性之間的相關性仍然很高

比特幣仍然無法穩固地保持在 $106,000 以上的水平,這引起了一定的擔憂。儘管在最近的幾天內,其他山寨幣和代幣的表現要好得多,但比特幣屢次在 $106,000 價位遇到阻力的事實值得注意。

Jakub Novak 09:17 2025-06-04 UTC+2

2025年6月4日BTC/USD分析

BTC/USD在4小時圖上的波形變得更加複雜。我們觀察到一個修正性向下的結構,其形成完成於75,000美元左右的水平。

Chin Zhao 09:10 2025-06-04 UTC+2

6月3日加密貨幣市場交易建議

在亞洲交易時段,比特幣和以太幣均大幅上漲,儘管昨日的收盤略顯低迷。然而,儘管這些資產迅速走強,比特幣仍然未能保持在10.6萬美元水平之上,令進一步的增長變得複雜。

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:51 2025-06-03 UTC+2

比特幣的技術前景看起來很有潛力

比特幣似乎在靠近104,000美元的水平找到了底部,目前在6月初的交易價格約為104,500美元。 顯而易見,加密貨幣正處於一個心理和技術的重要分水嶺,這可能決定下一波牛市趨勢的成功或失敗。

Jakub Novak 12:36 2025-06-02 UTC+2

6月2日加密貨幣市場交易建議

儘管在上週末出現調整,Bitcoin 和 Ethereum 再次顯示出上升勢頭,但 Ethereum 落後一些。 銀行集團的專家還指出,隨著監管清晰度的提高以及企業、ETF管理公司和機構投資者的大量比特幣購買,BTC正面臨供應衝擊。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:45 2025-06-02 UTC+2

2025年6月2日比特幣預測

比特幣在週末從目標水平 102,698 和內嵌的綠色價格通道線的支撐位形成反轉。 如果今天的蠟燭圖以白色(看漲)收盤,將確認價格位於通道線上方的鞏固,並明確開啟通向首個目標水平111,770的道路。

Laurie Bailey 04:30 2025-06-02 UTC+2

加密貨幣投資者仍受樂觀情緒困擾

儘管目前市場正在調整,但根據所謂的恐懼與貪婪指數顯示,投資者對購買加密資產的情緒依然保持樂觀,該指數如我們先前提到的,仍處於「貪婪」區域。 基本面風險——包括政治不確定性、債務增長及收益不穩定——仍對市場情緒產生影響。

Jurij Tolin 16:24 2025-05-30 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.