empty
28.02.2022 08:21 PM
Traders face bouts of volatility

Russia's intensifying invasion of Ukraine has sent investors rushing for cover. The volatility index has hit the highs of 2021.

The Cboe Volatility Index, the "fear gauge" for the S&P 500, jumped to the highest on a closing basis since January 2021. To protect oneself from the consequences, analysts recommend buying so-called stocks and currencies - safe havens. Among equities, utilities are of interest, for example, which are not directly linked to how the economy is performing. Among currencies, the Asian region, the dollar and the Canadian currency are popular.

This image is no longer relevant

Europe's worst conflict since World War II has sent investors rushing for cover in havens such as the dollar, gold and US Treasuries. While Ukrainian and Russian officials are set to begin talks Monday, traders are cautious about dipping their toes into stocks given the escalating risks.

The US and Europe have kicked some Russian banks out of the critical SWIFT financial messaging system and that's sent the ruble to fresh all-time lows, prompting the Bank of Russia to raise its key interest rate to the highest in almost two decades.

However, the implications extend far beyond Russia. Rising oil prices are adding to inflation pressures, increased defense spending hurts economies just coming out of Covid-19. All of this could affect the Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates more quickly to curb inflation, even as the military conflict in Ukraine has affected North America the least.

"We expect a period of high volatility and higher equity risk premia," said Patrick Moonen, principal multi-asset strategist at NN Investment Partners. The firm cut its exposure to cyclical stocks as commodity price-driven sustained high inflation could weigh on the growth outlook, he said.

Despite the fact that the Russian central bank suspended stock trading in Moscow for the day, traders are selling whatever they can, rushing to get rid of shares in Sberbank and other sanctioned companies. The VanEck Russia ETF, a US-listed fund that tracks the country's stocks, lost more than a quarter of its value Monday in US premarket trading.

Back at the weekend it became known that Plc would get rid of its stake in Rosneft PJSC. Despite this, analysts see little chance of attracting a buyer. The British company has warned that it could write off up to $25 billion in losses if it pulls out of Russia.

BP Plc shares plunged as much as 7.5% Monday, the most in three months.

Among stocks with heavy Russian business exposure, tiremaker Nokian Renkaat Oyj lost almost a quarter of its value and Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International AG declined as much as 19%.

From utilities to telecommunications, defensive stock sectors have outperformed this year along with the dollar index, signaling mounting worries that the Russia-Ukraine war will curb economic growth.

Generali Investments, for example, is cutting its overweight position on value while adding defensive and quality names. Morgan Stanley analysts upgraded utilities to overweight and downgraded automotives to equal-weight.

Future contracts tracking the S&P 500 slumped as much as 2.9% before paring the advance to trade 1% lower in the wake of the benchmark index's hefty gains on Friday. If the selloff gathers pace it could dip back into correction levels, defined as 10% drop from its recent peak. However, this scenario is not yet the most popular among analysts.

Spot gold prices have soared in February as investors sought safer investments. Bullion is just shy of hitting the highest level since December 2020.

"The Russian invasion of Ukraine fits into the unknown unknown box, along with most geopolitics," said Michael Wilson, a strategist at Morgan Stanley. "While there are many people who know quite a bit about such matters, geopolitics are very difficult to analyze and therefore very difficult to price. Instead, this invasion simply adds another risk to the mix that's unlikely to disappear quickly."

Indeed, every day there is news from Ukraine and Moscow that changes the outlook. The recent nuclear threat from the Kremlin has not yet created a significant resonance among politicians. However, the Europeans are likely to press their governments to do more to minimize this possibility. So it is reasonable to expect another pool of sanctions, which has the potential to cause severe economic consequences, primarily for Russia itself, but for the world economy as well.

On the other hand, it is unlikely that European citizens will overlook the obvious threat. We should expect rallies in the euro zone, as well as another sanctions.

The negotiations that have just ended are not likely to satisfy the parties, even with a formal agreement, which would then suffer the fate of the Minsk agreements.

Egor Danilov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

市場分歧:美國股市停滯,亞洲加速

道瓊工業指數:-0.22%;標普500指數:持平;納斯達克指數:+0.32%。美國服務業在五月份出現近一年以來的首次萎縮。

12:40 2025-06-05 UTC+2

6月5日美國市場新聞摘要

美國主要股市指數在交易日結束時變動不大:S&P 500微漲0.01%,納斯達克上漲0.32%,而道瓊斯下跌0.22%。市場參與者在等待美國就業數據發佈前保持謹慎態度。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:59 2025-06-05 UTC+2

美國指數停滯不前,亞洲加速:全球市場正在發生什麼

週三,美國股市以不明確的方向收盤。廣泛基準的S&P 500指數持平,而以科技股為主的納斯達克微幅上漲。

Thomas Frank 10:19 2025-06-05 UTC+2

比特幣的起伏:是繼續上升趨勢還是進入盤整期?

第一種加密貨幣——比特幣,正面臨著重大壓力,介於先前高峰的回調與新高峰的上漲之間搖擺。然而,這一旗艦資產拒絕屈服,並繼續邁向新的高點。

Larisa Kolesnikova 14:51 2025-06-04 UTC+2

6月4日美國市場新聞摘要

在持續的貿易爭端和不斷加劇的財政憂慮之中,美國投資者繼續遵循「逢低買入」策略。隨著標普500指數再創新高,市場參與者正在評估持續增長的前景。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:42 2025-06-04 UTC+2

市場樂觀情緒:Dollar General、Pinterest、Wells Fargo股票上漲提振指數

受NVIDIA等晶片製造商的強勁漲幅推動,美國股市指數週二收盤均上漲。投資者歡迎這波動力,期待著華盛頓關於關稅政策的潛在明確性以及與關鍵全球夥伴展開新一輪貿易對話的前景。

Thomas Frank 10:34 2025-06-04 UTC+2

在擔憂中成長:市場上漲,但製造業和Tesla停滯

儘管特朗普總統發出最新貿易威脅,但美國市場週一收盤上漲,這顯示出投資者對美國及其主要經濟夥伴貿易談判進展的信心不減。 上週五晚上,特朗普宣布計劃將進口鋼鐵和鋁的關稅從25%提高至50%,此變動將於週三生效。

Thomas Frank 11:41 2025-06-03 UTC+2

6月3日美國市場新聞摘要

在前一交易日上漲後,美國股市基準,包括標普500指數和納斯達克,因期貨滑落而受到壓力,這是由於華盛頓與北京之間貿易談判的不確定性所致。 投資者正密切關注唐納德·特朗普與習近平之間可能的會晤,這可能有助於緩解緊張局勢。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:27 2025-06-03 UTC+2

特朗普再次震撼華爾街:市場指數瞬間反應

華爾街過山車:五月以強勁反彈結束 在動蕩的一個月中,基準的標普500指數在週五收盤時幾乎與當日開盤位置相同。儘管交易波動不定,五月成為自2023年11月以來,指數取得的最大月度增幅。

12:44 2025-06-02 UTC+2

6月2日美國市場新聞摘要

五月成為2023年11月以來美國股市最成功的月份。雖然本月因唐納德·特朗普對中國的評論而表現出相當大的波動性,但到五月底,投資者情緒已經改善。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:14 2025-06-02 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.