empty
12.04.2021 03:40 PM
GBP/USD. Sterling relies on hope and faith as all other factors point to a decline

Today is the day when retail stores that sell non-essential goods, as well as pubs, bars, and restaurants that have the ability to serve customers outdoors, will partially open in England after almost 100 days of lockdown.

"Today is an important step forward in our roadmap to freedom. I am sure this will be a huge relief for those business owners who have been closed for so long," said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

This is certainly a big step for Britain and business, but it is worth considering that about 70,000 retail jobs were already lost last year, according to the British Retail Consortium.

In turn, retailers who are reopening their doors have spent millions of pounds on measures to promote safe shopping, from glass barriers at check-in to more frequent cleaning. They also worked with the government to address issues related to staff testing, and they simply won't be able to make up for the losses anytime soon.

As for the tourism industry, it is still very, very bad and we are not talking about recovery yet.

At the same time, British exporters reported lower sales in the first quarter after Covid-19, and the end of the long-running Brexit added to delivery delays, higher transport costs, and more extensive documentation, which carries large losses.

According to the British Chamber of Commerce, 41% of companies had lower revenue from overseas sales in the first quarter of the year, compared with 38% in the last three months of 2020. Hotels, retailers, and foodservice businesses were the hardest hit, according to the group's survey of more than 2,900 UK exporters.

These figures once again prove that the UK's exit from the European Union has upended supply chains and cooperation.

"With export sales at one of the lowest levels ever recorded in our data history, the fact that the situation continues to deteriorate is worrying. The difficulties exporters face are not just teething problems. These are structural problems that, if left unresolved, could lead to long-term, potentially irreversible weakness," said Hannah Essex, executive director of the British Chamber of Commerce.

Based on the above material, the joy, hope, and faith associated with the relaxation of quarantine measures are only a false perception of all the good things in the very difficult economic situation that the United Kingdom is facing.

This image is no longer relevant

What is happening in the market in terms of technical analysis?

Since the end of February, the GBP/USD currency pair has been following a correctional pattern from the peak of the medium-term trend of 1.4224, the scale of the weakening of the pound sterling is about 4%, and this is not so much when calculating the economic problems, as well as the scale of the upward movement in the period of 2020.

There is a potential for a decline in the exchange rate of the British currency in the market, and many traders are already planning a downward movement of at least 150-200 points, which will not yet be considered a change in trend.

As leverage for selling, as before, speculative operations can play if the price is kept below the local minimum of the existing correction of 1.3669. This is worth paying special attention to, as this may be the beginning of a strong decline.

Expectations and prospects

To begin with, pay attention to how accurately the volume of short positions is seduced in the area of the local correction minimum - 1.3669. Market participants hit the benchmark value (1.3669) on April 9 and 12, resulting in an immediate rebound, which indicates a high degree of natural basis for the reduction in trading volumes. This is a very good signal for sellers, as the base area is probed and the interaction of trade forces can be seen with the naked eye.

Thus, as soon as the price is kept lower than 1.3650 in a four-hour period, the chance for a depreciation of the pound sterling will increase significantly, and after it, the volumes of short positions will increase, which will lead us to the priority coordinates 1.3600-1.3550.

After that, the main target will be the area of interaction of trade forces 1.3200/1.3300/1.3400, but we will talk about this later.

This image is no longer relevant

What is happening on the GBP/USD chart in terms of indicator analysis and market dynamics?

Analyzing a different time sector, we see that technical instruments on the minute and hour intervals are signaling to buy due to the stage of a rebound from the 1.3669 area. The daily period signals a sale due to the corrective phase from the peak of the medium-term trend.

This image is no longer relevant

In terms of market dynamics, it can be seen that the activity on the market has noticeably decreased since April 8, but at the same time, the downward interest has not disappeared. At the same time, speculative excitement has the potential for growth, which is already visible on the market.

This image is no longer relevant

Gven Podolsky,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

2025年6月17日歐元/美元預測

週一,歐元兌美元 (EUR/USD) 貨幣對持續上行,並在 100.0% 回調位 1.1574 之上盤整,但之後未能繼續上升。如果收盤低於 1.1574 水準,將可能下跌至 76.4% 回調位 1.1454。

Samir Klishi 12:00 2025-06-17 UTC+2

外匯預測 2025/06/17:EUR/USD、USD/JPY、NZD/USD、SP500 和比特幣

實用連結: 我的其他文章可在此部分查看 InstaForex 初學者課程 熱門分析 開設交易帳戶 重要提示: 外匯交易初學者在決定進入市場時需要非常謹慎。在重要報告發布前,最好避免進入市場,以免因波動性增加而遭受劇烈市場波動。

Sebastian Seliga 10:46 2025-06-17 UTC+2

2025年6月17日 英鎊/美元匯率預測

在小時圖中,週一英鎊/美元組合再次攀升至1.3611–1.3633的阻力區,從該區反彈並回轉支撐美元。這並不是一個對美元有利的發展,因為目前很少有人相信美元會有強勁的反彈。

Samir Klishi 10:18 2025-06-17 UTC+2

2025年6月17日星期二,英鎊/日元跨貨幣對日內價格波動的技術分析

如果我們查看4小時圖,GBP/JPY交叉貨幣對顯示出看漲的偏向,這是由其價格走勢在上升的看漲通道中移動並高於WMA(21)所證實的,該均線也呈上升趨勢。然而,考慮到隨機震盪指標(Stochastic Oscillator)目前處於超買區域,這表明近期可能會有修正性走弱的潛力。

Arief Makmur 06:38 2025-06-17 UTC+2

2025年6月17日,星期二,黃金商品工具的日內價格走勢技術分析

在4小時圖中,黃金商品工具顯示出黃金價格走勢與隨機指標之間存在背離,這表明近期黃金有可能走弱,以測試3378.89的水平。如果成功突破並收盤於此水平之下,那麼黃金有可能繼續走弱回到3319.20-3295.12的區域作為其主要目標,並且如果弱勢的波動性和動量支持,則3181.31有潛力成為下一個目標。

Arief Makmur 06:38 2025-06-17 UTC+2

2025年6月17日 歐元/美元匯率預測

儘管面臨地緣政治風險,歐元仍展現出強勁的韌性,但這並不是孤軍奮戰。歐元的強勢得到油價和股市技術性調整的支持,這一情況與2003年美伊戰爭初期所見的相關性相似。

Laurie Bailey 04:51 2025-06-17 UTC+2

2025年6月17日英鎊/美元匯率預測

英鎊在日線圖上逐漸被MACD線和1.3635的阻力位壓縮。現在的關鍵問題是:未來幾天價格將向哪個方向突破? Marlin振盪指標測試其通道下邊界,增加了向上突破的可能性。

Laurie Bailey 04:48 2025-06-17 UTC+2

2025年6月17日澳元/美元預測

澳元已經連續八個交易日穩定在上升價格通道線0.6550附近。Marlin振盪指標則自5月28日以來一直穩定在零線之上。

Laurie Bailey 04:48 2025-06-17 UTC+2

XAU/USD 分析與預測

黃金目前保持日內損失。股市的整體樂觀情緒削弱了黃金的需求。

Irina Yanina 12:18 2025-06-16 UTC+2

2025年6月16日歐元/美元預測

週五,歐元/美元對逆轉至有利於美元並在1.1574的100.0%斐波那契回調水平以下盤整。這並非毫無緣由,接下來我們將進一步探討。

Samir Klishi 12:02 2025-06-16 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.